Florida Freshwater Fishing Forecast for December 29-January 5, 2024

Sunday's Complete Comprehensive Fishing Article for Florida's Freshwater Anglers

Good Fishing Today Through New Years Eve

The Florida Freshwater Fishing Forecast for Dec 29, 2024, through the first four days of January 2025, gives anglers a weak new moon phase and a typical winter weather forecast. All fishing factors considered anglers who fish during the daily warm water period will experience success otherwise it will take luck to find a hungry fish.

With a weak new moon having very little effect on fish the only good news is pre-front conditions will occur Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning when a weak west wind strengthens to a twelve mph speed. Depending on the speed of the approaching high pressure cold front pre-front action could occur through Tuesday evening.

The year will end with good pre-front fishing and the new year will begin with a slow moving, twenty-three degree high-pressure cold front which will make angler work for it for at least the first seven days of the new year.

To have access to the complete weekly article which offers comprehensive details and analysis, my prediction of the best fishing days, and fishing strategies for the next seven days, go to HighlandsBassAngler.com and subscribe for $5 per month or $30 per year. However, this week’s article will be offered in its entirety—1800 plus words—to give you a taste of the content you’ll receive if you choose to subscribe.

Solar-Lunar Factor: Solar noon occurs at 12:28 p.m. today but will advance to 12:31 p.m. within seven days. Today the moon arrives at its furthest point from the center of the solar energy path—lunar low. Monday the new moon occurs, which will be very weak due to occurring during a lunar low period. The moon’s orbit position currently is five days from the furthest orbit point-apogee, and nine days from arriving at the perigee which occurs one day after the first quarter moon.

Therefore, December’s second new moon phase will be very weak as compared to the new moon phases that occur during the April through June months when the lunar high and orbit perigee occur within the same seven-day period. A five rating is the best we can hope for. I say “hope” because a weather event could diminish that feed rating during the winter months.

Weather Factors: The weather forecast will play a critical factor in the feed rating during the new moon phase which began Friday. Warm temperatures and an ideal south wind and predominate cloud-cover will cause fish to feed at above average rates away from protective cover. Anglers should be prepared to fan cast rather than flip up close to visible vegetation.

Monday the warm low-pressure system slowly leaves the state and produces a variable weak wind but bright sunlight which will cause fish to enter a pre-front feeding pattern as they move tight to protective cover. Early Tuesday morning a southwest to west wind begin and will climb to a thirteen mph speed by the early afternoon hours.

I expect a very good pre-front bite to be on during the morning. Pressure will begin a slow but steady climb of about 0.12 in hg every twenty-four hours which will last two days. Fish will feed into Wednesday morning and shut down before midday.

Wednesday afternoon through Saturday a very slow moving high-pressure cold front will drop temperatures twenty plus degrees and cause fish to adjust upward and into the cooler temperature water which will be in the process of moving toward the deeper sections of the water body. With the cooler water temps and the slowing metabolisms of the fish as they move upward into the cooler water, will not produce much of a need-to-feed action if any at all. The only fish that could need to feed will be the ones which did not successfully feed today through Wednesday morning.

It is a fact that the largest largemouth bass in the lake has a high rate of failure to feed. As giant female bass (there is no such thing as a giant male bass unless you classify a 16-17” male bass which weighs 4 lbs. a ‘Giant’) get older and larger they mentally deteriorate enough that they fail to ambush their prey resulting in making mistakes such as inhaling a fake bait that they would not have eaten otherwise. This is the one reason why so many trophy bass are caught during the winter months.

Solunar - Weather Influence Variable: As already addressed, the weak new moon will be only at half strength. And that moderate to weak lunar influence will be shut down Wednesday afternoon to evening. Ideal weather will still provide a great above-average new moon bite today through Tuesday, however.

It should be noted that fish are in their winter-feeding pattern which consists of being most actively feeding when water temperatures reach the daily high mark during the 12-4 p.m. hours. During a new moon phase, weak or strong, the overhead period occur during the warmest water period of the day. Therefore, anglers can expect fair to good fishing over the next three days during the early to midafternoon hours.

Major Solar-Lunar Period: Today the moon is overhead at 11:22 a.m. producing a feed rating of five to six from 10 a.m.-1 p.m. Daily the overhead moon occurs later by a little over an hour and remains at the same feed rating until Wednesday when the effect of the upcoming cold front drops the feed rate into the three range.

A second major period happens today when the moonset occurs at 4:26 p.m. producing a feed rating of five to six from 3-6 p.m. Due to fish feeding daily during the warmest water temperature period of the day the added influence of the moonset near the end of the period will improve the intensity and duration of that active feeding period. However, by the midweek, when the slow moving twenty-degree cold front arrives this lunar period and the warm water period will produce feed ratings in the two to three range.

Minor Solar Lunar Periods: Today the moonrise occurs at 6:15 a.m. producing a feed rating of three to four from 5-7:30 a.m. Daily the moonrise occurs later by fifty-five minutes and remains at the same feed rating until the midweek cold front slows action down to a two rating or less.

Best Fishing Days: Today through Tuesday a weak new moon and ideal weather factors will produce a five-feed rating and perhaps a little better during the pre-front conditions which will occur, depending on the speed of the approaching high-pressure cold front, sometime between Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

My Personal Bass Fishing Plan: I have my rods set up for pitching and flipping, and long fan casting. I select baits which emit a very heavy action and vibration at very slow retrieve speeds. The appearance should be that of a well-fed successful feeder which is moving slower because it overfed in the hour before…..it moved too close to a hungry larger bass waiting in ambush in the thicker sections of open-water submerged vegetation or shoreline visible vegetation which is in the warmest sections of the lake—north and northwest shorelines.

I like to use red, brown, gold and black colored baits during the winter months. Blue with black is always good year round. Green is not selected and usually I don’t select junebug color variations either. And the darker the water visibility the darker the bait color and usually black and dark brown are part of the combination.

Very big weedless jigs with huge trailers, the bigger the better, are used when flipping, pitching and fan casting—my casting technique is a low position side-arm action which keeps the bait no more than six feet above the water’s surface moving at a very high speed—fastest I can physically produce—which allows me to slam on the thumb brake on my baitcaster reel just before the bait make contact with the water. The objective is to produce as little disturbance as possible in order to create a natural presentation for the giant bass to investigate.

The larger bass tend to move away from anything unnatural. And a large splash is anything but natural and causes the younger bass to move toward your bait. This serves to help the big bass feed on the smaller opportunistic feeders responding to the disturbance---easier to ambush-inhale a smaller fish quickly moving toward a disturbance because it’s moving directly into the sight of the larger ambushing bass which is facing the opposite direction away from the disturbance.

So, the bigger the splash, the more you won’t attract a large bass to your bait. But if your bait enters the water naturally, with hardly, if any, splash at all, the odds of a large bass turning to investigate increase and if you have mastered the correct natural action, depth and speed of the food she has been feeding on recently, you’ll create very good odds of setting the hook on a large bass.

And, for the majority of large bass to become interested in your bait presentation efforts, you’ll need several ‘silent bait entry’ long casts, pitches, or flips, to attract a big bass enough for her to investigate your offering. Most big bass have a very high rate of successful feeding, which is why they’re so big. So, the angler must successfully present their bait naturally many times before success is achieved. A slow retrieve with several very long pauses of a fat, heavy action bait, produces very good odds of being inhaled.

Prime Monthly Periods: December 29-January 1, 2025, very weak new moon, February 10-13 weak full moon, 25- March 2 new moon, 13-15 weak full moon, 27 – April 1 strong new moon, May10-14 weak full moon, 23-29 strong new moon.

Lake Istokpoga S68 Spillway and Lake Level Status: Lake level is currently at 38.32 NAVD88 with three of four gates open an average of two to three inches flowing a combined 150 cfs. The NAVD88 Offset to NGVD29 + 1.15 feet = 39.47NGVD29. The current seasonal schedule maximum level is 39.50 NGVD29 and the minimum level is 38.50’ NGVD29. Currently the lake is less than an inch below the maximum level. Links to the USACE and SFWM websites are provided at HighlandsBassAngler.com.

Dave Douglass has been an artificial bait only bass fishing guide since 2005, and writer of the Highlands News-Sun fishing forecast article since Oct. 2016 and previously the writer of the Highlands Today fishing forecast article which began in Nov. 2005. Contact him by email at DavidPDouglass@hotmail.com or by phone at 863-381-8474; please leave a message for a return call.