Florida Freshwater Fishing Forecast for Nov. 27-Dec 4, 2024

Wednesday's Complete Comprehensive Fishing Article for Florida's Freshwater Anglers

New Moon Fishing Interrupted by Cold Front

The Florida Freshwater Fishing Forecast for the last four days of November and the beginning of Decembers gives anglers the new moon phase which will be interrupted by a significant cold front. With a very weak new moon occurring Sunday and a fifteen-to-twenty-degree cold front moving into the state on Friday night, the thirty-six hours prior to the cold front will be far more productive than the other five days of the new moon seven-day phase.

All fishing factors considered; anglers will do best to fish today through Friday midday during the pre-front conditions when the bite will be above average. Saturday through Monday fish will be forced up into shoreline feeding areas but will not feed much due to the rapidly dropping temperatures. Tuesday and next Wednesday some mild warming will occur which should improve feeding activity. However, the extended weather forecast predicts another cold front during the second half of next week.

Anglers therefore should work to perfect their winter strategies which means fishing when water temps are highest during the day and during pre-front conditions. And bass anglers will see bass entering the spawning mode early this winter season, which means less feeders participating in normal feeding efforts.

To have access to the complete article which offers comprehensive details and analysis plus my fishing strategy and plan for the next seven days, go to HighlandsBassAngler.com and subscribe for $5 per month or $30 per year.

I have moved the paywall to the end of the article in the spirit of Thanksgiving for you the reader. May your Thanksgiving be one of great reflection upon the goodness with which you have been blessed.

Solar-Lunar Factor: Solar noon occurs at 12:13 p.m. today but will advance to 12:15 p.m. within seven days. The lunar orbit apogee occurred yesterday, and the moon arrives at the low position out of the solar energy path Monday, one day after the new moon occurs. Anglers will have a weak lunar influence for the next fourteen days. Fish will not be feeding in large numbers when they feed, and the feeding effort will be shorter. December’s first new moon will be very weak, producing at best a four to five feed rating during the overhead period. A second new moon occur on Dec 30 and will also be just as weak.

Weather Factors: Water temperatures are now averaging in the upper fifties and lower sixties which means bass are in the spawning mode. It also is true that the majority of fish populations are feeding when their metabolism speeds are highest during the day and that is when water temperatures climb to the highest degree. So, fish will not be feeding nearly as much during daily lunar periods (even when the lunar influence is strongest) but instead when their bodies are at the daily high speed and the food chain is most active.

Solunar - Weather Influence Variable: The weather and more specifically the weekly cold front, are determining when fish feed. And the second determiner is each fish’s feeding success rate when they do attempt to feed. When fish metabolisms slow way down in fifty-degree water, the entire food chain become much less active, which creates a much greater challenge for each fish to successfully feed. This condition causes fish to feed when they need to, and lunar influences won’t be much of a factor if at all. Sunshine, however, will be a factor due to the warming effect which increases metabolism speeds.

Atmospheric pressure change is also three times greater on average during the winter weather pattern than during the summer, fall or spring, weather patterns. When pressure change of 0.10 in hg or greater occurs---currently there’s a 0.15-0.18 in hg change during a twenty-four-hour period when a cold front arrives. And this amount of pressure rise forced fish to move upward but into the colder water in the shallows---the warmest water during the arrival of a cold front is usually at the five-to-ten-foot depths in the lake. Fish, therefore, are forced to leave the water temperatures they’ve acclimated to previous to the cold front’s arrival and move up into colder water in order to maintain a bladder pressure which enables normal bodily functions. This unnatural condition of moving into colder water causes a stressed state until the fish’s body acclimates, which usually takes forty-eight hours or sometimes longer.

Friday night through Saturday morning fish will be migrating into the shallow, driven they're by a fast-rising barometer and will move even more shallow by Sunday midday. Even though the new moon will be occurring, only the fish which have not successfully fed during the pre-front conditions will feed. Each lake will have some fish which must feed but some lakes will have no active feeders.

It is an interesting fact that when a largemouth bass becomes old and large their ability to successfully feed greater decreases. It is when cold fronts arrive that anglers catch these giant females which feed out of necessity when all other fish do not need to. Saturday through Monday the largest bass in the lake could be feeding out of necessity. I recommend throwing a big jig and trailer.

Major Solar-Lunar Periods: Today the moon is overhead at 9:29 a.m. producing a feed rating of four from 8:30-10:30 a.m. Daily the overhead moon occurs later by forty minutes and improves in feed rating by a half number. Sunday a feed rating of five or slightly better will occur from 11 a.m.-2 p.m. or even later due to fish feeding at higher rates as water temperatures climb to the daily high reading.

A second major period happens today when the moonset occurs at 3:10 p.m. producing a feed rating of four from 2-4:30 p.m. Daily the moonset occurs later by thirty minutes and remains at the same feed rating. Sunday a feed rating of four will occur from 4:30 – 6:30 p.m. This period will become a minor period as it moves later into the night, producing a two to three rating next week.

Minor Solar Lunar Periods: Today the moon is underfoot at 9:50 p.m. producing a feed rating of two or three from 8:45-10:45 p.m. Daily the underfoot moon occurs later by forty minutes and remains at the same feed rating.

A second minor period happens today when the moonrise occurs at 3:41 a.m. producing a feed rating of three from 2:30-4:30 a.m. Daily the moonrise occurs later by fifty-two minutes and remains at the same feed rating until the weekend when it harmonizes with the sunrise period and produces a feed rating of four or slightly better from 5:45-8:30 a.m.

Best Fishing Days: Because we are currently in a winter season feeding pattern, fish will primarily feed when their metabolisms are at higher speeds, which occurs naturally when the highest water temperature period of the day occurs. Therefore, no matter what the lunar position is fish will be more affected by solar noon and the rising water temperatures caused by the overhead sun.

Today water temperatures have been climbing for three days and there’s a cold front forecasted to enter the state Friday afternoon, therefore fish will feed at above average rates during the daily lunar periods, even though they are weak right now, which occur during the late morning to afternoon hours which is the overhead and moonset periods.

And pre-front conditions will occur during the south wind Thursday and Friday morning, which could continue through Friday midday, depending on the speed of the arriving cold front. Usually once a south wind switches to the west and then the west northwest, the pre-front bite ends.

My Personal Bass Fishing Plan: Throwing big jigs with big trailers, which emit heavy vibration when hardly advanced is what I will be doing. Cattails are where the crawdads mostly inhabit. Bass will blow sand away from the root base of the cattails, hoping to uncover them. Dropping your big one ounce or larger jig quietly, naturally, along the main stalk of the cattail and shaking and jigging it for several minutes will attract any big bass which needs to feed when all other fish do not have to.

It should be noted that atmospheric pressure change doesn’t affect crawdads. In fact, these creatures thrive in winter weather patterns and search for beds to feed from. Therefore, bass naturally target these predators of the bass’s eggs.

Prime Monthly Periods: December 1-3 second half of weak new moon phase, 12 – 18 strong full moon, 29-January 1, 2025, very weak new moon, February 10-13 weak full moon, 25- March 2 new moon, 13-15 weak full moon, 27 – April 1 strong new moon.

Lake Istokpoga S68 Spillway and Lake Level Status: Lake level data from SFWMD’s website shows the average lake level to be 38.31 NAVD88 with four gates closed. (NGVD Offset is + 1.15 feet). The USACE website shows a level of 39.53’ NGVD29 and shows four gates closed, website shows N/R malfunctions.

The current seasonal schedule maximum level is 39.50 feet above sea level and the minimum level is 38.60’ above sea level. Currently the lake is at the maximum level. Links to the USACE and SFWM websites are provided at HighlandsBassAngler.com.

Dave Douglass has been an artificial bait only bass fishing guide since 2005, and writer of the Highlands News-Sun fishing forecast article since Oct. 2016 and previously the writer of the Highlands Today fishing forecast article since Nov. 2005. Contact him by email at DavidPDouglass@hotmail.com or by phone at 863-381-8474; please leave a message for a return call.