Florida Freshwater Fishing Forecast for December 22-31, 2024

Sunday's Complete Comprehensive Fishing Article for Florida's Freshwater Anglers

Fishing When Water is Warmest Brings the Best Success

The Florida Freshwater Fishing Forecast for the week of December 22 will give anglers the weakest lunar days of the month, the last quarter moon phase, and typical winter weather which will start out on the cold side and improve twenty-five degrees by the midweek with a minor cold front arriving as the second new moon phase of the month begins heading into next weekend.

All fishing factors considered; anglers will do best to fish during the warmest water period of the day which will only improve as the week continues due to eighty-degree conditions for the second half of the week.

However, there will be more clouds than sun beginning Tuesday so expect fish to be away from cover when this occurs. Until then fish will be tight to cover, in the shallows, feeding when temperatures rise after several hours of bright sunshine.

So, I’ll predict that Christmas fishing will be fair at best while New Years fishing will be good or slightly better than good. But then again, this is Florida, and there are always big fish feeding when all the other fish are not. Every fish’s ‘need-to-feed’ timing is unpredictable and depends on previous ‘feeding success rates’ per each fish.

As a largemouth bass ages and grows to its largest size of its lifetime, its feeding success rate declines due to its ability to ambush prey deteriorates. The need-to-feed factor increases to the point that a fourteen-to-sixteen-pound bass will begin to target anything which looks like an easy meal.

When an angler catches a bass of this size range, it’s probably the first time this bass has made a mistake due to hunger and desperation. And if an angler doesn’t catch this bass, a gator will eventually, as the bass fails at feeding efforts and exposes itself as the desperate feeder in a creature-eat-creature world.

May your angling holiday season bring you exceptional catches, worthy of hanging replicas on your wall.

Solar-Lunar Factor: Solar noon occurs at 12:24 p.m. today but will advance to 12:28 p.m. within seven days. The last quarter moon occurs today, and the moon arrives at the point of orbit apogee Tuesday, five days before the lunar low occurs the day before the new moon. In other words, the lunar effect is weakening throughout this week, and the second new moon of December will be another weak one. Therefore, anglers can expect daily lunar periods to contribute one point to the feed rating for the next ten to fourteen days.

When the lunar effect is weak, so too are the numbers of active feeders feeding at the same time. And therefore, feeding effort durations decrease. Fish adjustment activity doesn’t occur resulting in a higher number of random feedings. But the one factor which prevails in the world of the fish during the winter season is water temperature.

When water temperatures reach the daily high mark, feeding activity also arrives at its daily high mark. During the winter the need-to-feed factor is determined by daily water temperature rise. When temperatures peak, so too does the feeding efforts of a body of water’s food-chain.

It should also be noted that during the winter season when the sun is at its lowest annual position in the sky, the north and northwest sides of the lake produce the warmest water first during the course of the day. Northwest in the morning, directly north during the midday and the northeast during the late afternoon.

Weather Factors: Temperatures will climb to the eighty-degree range by the midweek and other than today and Monday, cloud cover will dominate, and rainfall occurs Wednesday through Friday. The north wind occurring today will switch to an east-northeast wind Monday and Tuesday and an east will occur Wednesday through Saturday. Next Sunday a weak front will enter the state signaled by a south wind followed by a west wind a day later. Wind speeds will be in the ideal range of eight to twelve mph all week.

The weather fronts are forecasted to be very slow movers, so there will not be any atmospheric pressure changes to consider---less than 0.10 in hg of movement within twenty-four hours.

Solunar - Weather Influence Variable: As already stated, during the weak lunar period of the month---apogee and lunar low occurring during the same seven-day period—solar factors determine when fish feed. And naturally during the winter cold temperatures any rise in water temperature is going to increase the metabolism speed of the fish, enough so that it feeds at a greater rate. The higher the change in temperature the higher the rate of feeding.

During the Florida winter season there are more fish feeding in harmony with the daily high water temperature occurrence than any other time of day regardless of the lunar factors, whether high, low, or in between. And since there will be no significant pressure change this week, water temperature rise will become the sole environmental main driver causing fish to feed.

Major Solar-Lunar Period: Today the moonset occurs at 12:16 p.m. and produces a feed rating of four to five from 11 a.m.-2 p.m. Daily the moonset occurs later by thirty-three minutes and remains at the same feed rating.

The reason a minor lunar period is designated as a major feed period is due to it occurring during the warmest water temperature period of the day which is between 1-4:30 p.m. The lunar effect is currently at its weakest influence rating so the warm water period rating will experience a one-point bump in feed rate—from four to a solid five rating.

In eight days the second new moon of the month occurs, which means the new moon seven-day phase begins Friday as the moonset occurs at the peak of the warm water period. I predict this period will outperform the overhead period which will be occurring during the solar noon period Sunday through next Tuesday Dec. 31.

And starting Friday the overhead period, which is a minor period today, will become a major period is it begins to work in harmony with the solar noon period and the beginning of the warmest water period of the day,

Minor Solar Lunar Periods: Today the moon is overhead at 6:07 a.m. producing a feed rating of three to four from 5-7:30 a.m. Daily the overhead moon occurs later by forty minutes and produces the same feed rating until the midweek when temperatures rebound about twenty-five degrees when the overhead period occurs during the late morning hours, which I predict will improve the feed rating by a point or two.

A second minor period happens today when the moon is underfoot at 6:26 p.m. producing a feed rating of three to four from 5-8 p.m. Daily the underfoot moon occurs later by about forty minutes and remains at the same feed rating.

Best Fishing Days: The warmest days this week occur Wednesday through next Monday. And since the new moon will add a point or two to the feed rating next Monday, Saturday and Sunday will be the best days of the next seven to go fishing.